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CIR estimates 10G market will reach US$3.3B by 2009

According to a new report from Communications Industry Researchers, Inc. (CIR) the market for 10-Gigabit ports will...


December 8, 2004  


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According to a new report from Communications Industry Researchers, Inc. (CIR) the market for 10-Gigabit ports will take a quantum leap over the next five years.

During 2005, CIR expects the market to be approximately US$570 million, but this will grow rapidly, reaching $3.3 billion by 2009.

CIR sees much of this growth coming from 10-Gigabit Ethernet, which will account for two-thirds of the 10G market in 2005 but almost 80% of the market in 2009.

"In 2004, the 10-Gigabit networking market finally took off, as Cisco, Extreme, Foundry, Force10, InfiniCon, Voltaire, Topspin, and many others have begun to promote 10-Gbps connectivity," the research firm said.

"Of particular interest is the rise of short-reach 10G interfaces based on copper. These represent less than 1% of the 10-Gigabit Ethernet market at present, but are expected to account for almost one fourth of the market by 2009.

"The rise of 10-Gigabit Ethernet is being driven by a surge in demand from corporations, research labs and governments. With OC-192 router ports now priced at 50 times that of the average 10-Gigabit Ethernet port, no one is going to choose SONET/SDH over 10-Gigabit Ethernet."

However, in spite of all the multi-service hype, service providers are sticking with SONET/SDH for MAN and WAN transport over more than 10 km., and the market for OC-192/STM-64 ports will continue to grow quite smoothly and reach more than US$460 million in 2009.

Other factors in the growth of the 10G market over the next few years will be the arrival of 10G Fibre Channel and the continued growth of 10-Gig Infiniband interfaces, CIR said..

"There has been plenty of media analysis regarding Ethernet vs. SONET, but in practice there are more decision makers comparing Ethernet to Infiniband as Linux clustering is forcing data centers to reconsider their network architectures."

The new report provides detailed quantitative forecast of the major 10-Gigabit protocols, broken down by the various copper, multimode fiber, and single-mode fiber port types.